Are you good enough?

By: Bella Dalba

Enrollment at American colleges is steadily increasing, but competition for spots at private universities is more cutthroat and anxiety-inducing than ever. In the 2014 admissions cycle, Stanford University accepted only 5% of applicants, the lowest acceptance rate for any college in American history: it received a staggering 42,167 applications for the class of 2018 that, ultimately, will number about 1,700. The odds are nearly as bad at its elite rivals: Harvard University was the most selective of the Ivy League, accepting a record-low 5.8% of its 33,531 applicants. It was followed by Yale University, which admitted 6.72% of its record-high 29,610 applicants, and Columbia University, which dropped its acceptance rate from 7.4% last year to 6.89% this year. Taken together, the Ivy League received 247,283 applications and admitted 23,010 prospective students, making for a collective acceptance rate of 9.3%.

Deluged by more applications than ever, the most selective colleges are, inevitably, rejecting a vast majority, including legions of students they once would have accepted. Admissions directors at these institutions say that most of the students they turn down are such strong candidates that many are indistinguishable from those who get in. Richard Shaw, Stanford’s Dean of Undergraduate Admissions, believes the primary reason for Stanford’s lowered acceptance rate was a record-high number of applicants, especially among first-generation and international students, who traditionally received preference during consideration. “I’m disappointed by it, and, honestly, shocked. My message is, I’m really sorry to all those kids who are really amazing and we can’t accommodate. I don’t think any of us expected it to come to this.”

According to the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, the number of high school graduates in the U.S. steadily increased for 15 years before peaking at 3.4 million graduates in 2010–11. However, there are still some 3.2 million students graduating each year, and they’re applying to colleges alongside high school seniors from around the world. In addition, all those students are applying to more colleges than ever, thanks in large part to the Common App, a single application and essay that is accepted at 488 schools, including the vast majority of selective schools.

According to the National Association for College Admission Counseling, 79% of students in 2011 applied to three or more colleges, up from 67% in 2000. Even colleges who accept more than half of applicants are facing tougher decisions, as the desperation for acceptance to at least one school drives more and more applicants to these so-called “safety” schools. Though this isn’t considered a “very selective” rate, many don’t recognize that half of those students were rejected.

Isaac Madrid, 18, is a perfect example of these applicants. He knows firsthand of how random the results can seem: he applied to 11 colleges, a scattershot approach that he said is fairly typical at his private high school, Bellarmine College Preparatory in San Jose, California. He was among the 95 percent turned away by Stanford, but was one of the lucky 1,900 to be accepted by Yale, which he plans to attend in the fall. He received no real insight into the reasons for either decision.

“Kids see that the admit rates are brutal and still dropping, and it looks more like a crapshoot,” says Bruce Poch, a former admissions dean at Pomona College. “So they send more applications, which forces the colleges to lower their admit rates, which then spurs the kids next year to send even more apps.”

Author Rachel Toor believes the fault lies with the applicants, who are driven to compete for a title of prestige: “Even when you tell them only 6% get in, they still think, ‘Maybe I’ll be the one.’ Most of the time, they’re not. They need to be realistic with themselves and ask, ‘Do I really have a chance at this school?’”

A generation ago, it was rare for even highly competitive colleges to offer places to fewer than 20 percent of their applicants. Most people point to colleges’ increasingly aggressive outreach to prospective students, with mailings, emails and advertising: some of it well intentioned, and others much more cynical. “One of the ways that colleges are measured is by the number of applicants and their admit rate, and some colleges do things simply to increase their applicant pool and manipulate those numbers,” said Christoph Guttentag, the Dean of Undergraduate Admission at Duke. “Admissions officers like to say their decisions are uninfluenced by rankings, but it’s the primary factor. For each applicant, they ask ‘Out of 30,000 other kids, all competing for this spot, how do you compare? Are you good enough?’”